ADP Predicts 600K Plus Job Losses

7 Jan 8:36am
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The worst estimate yet...

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The breakdown is as follows:
Small businesses=              -281,000
Medium businesses=         -321,000
Large businesses =                -91,000

BY SECTOR
Goods-producing sector=      -220,000
Service-providing sector=    -473,000

As ADP stated: Beginning this month, the ADP Report will incorporate methodological improvements intended to improve the correspondence between the nonfarm private employment estimates shown in the ADP Report and estimates published in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation Report.

Now, with job losses surging and another body blow to housing coming as the option-arm fiasco comes home to roost, one has to seriously wonder how those who think the second half of 2009 will show growth honestly come to that conclusion. American's have proven to be smarter than Congress through this as they took the first stimulus checks and either saved it or paid off debt. There is no reason to expect they will do anything different with another one.

It is the right thing to do with the money even though it hurts the overall economy for now. Too bad...

American's are thinking about their personal balance sheet, when that is healthy, all will be well again. The problem is that will take a while..



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ToddSullivan

A Massachusetts based value investor, I look for companies whose current valuation is at a discount to their true value. When I purchase a stock, my typical holding period is several years. I consider buying a stock purchasing a piece of a business. I am confident once I make a decision to buy that eventually the market as a whole will recognize the true value of the business and value it accordingly. It may take 1 month, 6 months or a year, but if I buy it at enough of a discount to its true value my results will be (and have been) superior to the market as a whole. Of all the disparate investing disciplines, value investing has stood the test of time. The great investors of have all been value investors. Warren Buffett, Ben Graham, Bill Ruane (Sequoia Fund), Bill Miller and Wally Weitz, all have consistently outperformed the market for decades by using various forms of value investing. Currently I am a contributing writer to Seeking Alpha, Vinvesting.com, The Stock Masters and Value Investing News. Posts have been reprinted in The Wall St. Journal, Yahoo Finance, Google Alerts, Google Finance, TheStreet.com. 24/7 Wall St. and Topix.net.