Greenspan the Odds Maker

28 Sep 8:11am
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I Greenspan jockeying for a job on Vegas?

Before the summer began he made waves with the first understandable statement of his career. "The US has a greater than 30% chance of a recession this year". Whoa, it is actually a coherent blathering from the former chief. Since that prediction seems to be wrong, Greeenie decided to follow it up yesterday.

"The danger of recession has obviously risen but in my judgment ... is still less than 50/50. It's less optimistic than one would like," Greenspan told BBC Radio 4. So, I guess that means we are about 30% to 45% chance? If only he were this clear when he was in office.

Oh yea the reason for the interview? He was peddling his new book overseas. Funny how the almighty quest for a fast buck clears ones thought process.


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ToddSullivan

A Massachusetts based value investor, I look for companies whose current valuation is at a discount to their true value. When I purchase a stock, my typical holding period is several years. I consider buying a stock purchasing a piece of a business. I am confident once I make a decision to buy that eventually the market as a whole will recognize the true value of the business and value it accordingly. It may take 1 month, 6 months or a year, but if I buy it at enough of a discount to its true value my results will be (and have been) superior to the market as a whole. Of all the disparate investing disciplines, value investing has stood the test of time. The great investors of have all been value investors. Warren Buffett, Ben Graham, Bill Ruane (Sequoia Fund), Bill Miller and Wally Weitz, all have consistently outperformed the market for decades by using various forms of value investing. Currently I am a contributing writer to Seeking Alpha, Vinvesting.com, The Stock Masters and Value Investing News. Posts have been reprinted in The Wall St. Journal, Yahoo Finance, Google Alerts, Google Finance, TheStreet.com. 24/7 Wall St. and Topix.net.